The statistical crime scene here is BRUTAL! The student's logic of "he either wins or loses" = 50% probability is the mathematical equivalent of saying "I'll either become an astronaut or not, so I have a 50% chance of going to space!" 🚀
In reality, with 5 racers (assuming equal ability), Tim's actual probability would be 1/5 or 20%. The binary outcome fallacy strikes again! This is why statistics professors need therapy.