Binary fallacy Memes

The statistical crime scene here is BRUTAL! The student's logic of "he either wins or loses" = 50% probability is the mathematical equivalent of saying "I'll either become an astronaut or not, so I have a 50% chance of going to space!" 🚀 In reality, with 5 racers (assuming equal ability), Tim's actual probability would be 1/5 or 20%. The binary outcome fallacy strikes again! This is why statistics professors need therapy.

The perfect textbook example of why statisticians drink heavily. Someone asks about the probability of a plane getting struck by lightning while crossing a rainbow (an actually fascinating statistical question), and the galaxy-brain response? "50% - it either happens or it doesn't." This is the mathematical equivalent of saying water is wet because it's not dry. Every statistics professor just felt a disturbance in the force, as if millions of carefully crafted probability distributions suddenly cried out in terror and were silenced. The irony of this appearing on a Probability & Statistics textbook cover is *chef's kiss* perfection. Next up in Statistical Fallacies 101: "What are the odds of winning the lottery? 50% - I either win or I don't!"