Binary fallacy Memes

The perfect textbook example of why statisticians drink heavily. Someone asks about the probability of a plane getting struck by lightning while crossing a rainbow (an actually fascinating statistical question), and the galaxy-brain response? "50% - it either happens or it doesn't." This is the mathematical equivalent of saying water is wet because it's not dry. Every statistics professor just felt a disturbance in the force, as if millions of carefully crafted probability distributions suddenly cried out in terror and were silenced. The irony of this appearing on a Probability & Statistics textbook cover is *chef's kiss* perfection. Next up in Statistical Fallacies 101: "What are the odds of winning the lottery? 50% - I either win or I don't!"