Independent events Memes

Ever notice how differently people react to probability? When the doctor says "999 patients were fine," civilians are like "SWEET ODDS!" while mathematicians are thinking "I'M LITERALLY DOOMED." 😱 The Gambler's Fallacy strikes again! Just because 999 successful surgeries happened doesn't mean the 1000th is guaranteed to fail. Each surgery is an independent event with the same 0.1% failure chance. It's like flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads every time. That 11th flip? Still 50/50! But try telling that to your brain when you're counting anesthesia sheep...

The classic conditional probability trap that separates the statisticians from the button-mashers. With a 50% crit chance, the probability of both hits being crits isn't 50% — it's 25%. Each hit is an independent event, so you multiply the probabilities: 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25 or 25%. Watching gamers argue about this is like observing undergrads discover Bayes' theorem for the first time. The number of PhDs who still get this wrong would shock you.

The doctor's statement is giving me heart palpitations! 💀 The gambler's fallacy strikes again! Just because a coin lands heads 20 times in a row doesn't mean it's "due" for tails. Each surgery is an independent event with the same 50% chance regardless of previous outcomes. The mathematician's terror face says it all - they're not comforted, they're HORRIFIED because they know they might be patient #21 about to balance that statistical ledger! Probability doesn't have a memory or a sense of fairness. Your chances aren't improving - they're exactly the same as they've always been!