Predictable Memes

The classic frog-lily pad-rock scenario strikes again! If you've ever taken a probability course, these three images haunt your dreams. Markov chains describe systems where the next state depends only on the current state (not the past), and textbook authors are OBSESSED with using frogs hopping between lily pads and rocks to explain it. It's like textbook authors had exactly ONE meeting about how to explain probability transitions and unanimously decided: "Green frog. Green pads. Some rocks. DONE." The probability of escaping this example? Approximately zero!